Newswise there is very little to report today. To sum up the rest of this update: things look pretty much like they did yesterday.

Both new cases and new deaths have decreased in the US today. They are both so small we’d read them more like “holding steady” than dropped.

Source: Data from The COVID Tracking Project; chart by JM Addington
Source: Data from The COVID Tracking Project; chart by JM Addington

Similarly, Tennessee is down in cases but remains just a smidge below the 7-day average of 240 new cases/day.

Source: Data from The COVID Tracking Project; chart by JM Addington

Knox County and the surrounding area continue to be mixed news. Absolute cases and deaths are low but growth remains relatively constant.

Source: Data from The New York Times; chart by JM Addington
Source: Data from The New York Times; chart by JM Addington

On the whole, the 3/27 projections from the IMHE seem to be about on track for deaths, which we use as a proxy for the trend in the US as a whole.

Source: Data from The COVID Tracking Project and IMHE; Chart by JM Addington

Questions on the Models

There are some legitimate questions on the models, especially IMHE’s. On the one hand, they’ve been some of the most transparent about the process and their data allowing anyone to download it and run comparisons. On the other hand, their predictions on hospitalizations have been so much higher than data we can find we haven’t reported on it because we were afraid we misunderstood the data. We’ve reached out to them but haven’t heard back.

Get In Touch

Need help thinking this through? Access to more data? Help getting your technology in order to handle what’s here and what’s coming? Contact us today.

Other

Thanks to those that have shared kind words or liked these posts. We’re doing out best to put out data-driven analysis, each one of these takes about 2 hours. It’s helpful to know that they are being read.

If you want copies of the Excel sheet and PowerBI Reports we use to put these together email us, info@jmaddington.com. Right now, our PowerBI combines data from JHU, NYT, COVID Tracking Project, IMHE and the TN Department of Health. Most sets are updated daily.

[1] Executive Order 22 references this CISA guidance.