We’ll probably keep highlighting the differences between how Asia and the West respond because the American media does a very poor job explaining how vast the gap is. The Asian countries that have the virus under control consider a couple of dozen cases serious. In the US, a couple of dozen cases seems like magical realism. In China, they will lock down harder over 100 cases than the US locked down at the peak of the outbreak.
It also means that it is very difficult for us to learn about public policy responses from watching China.
Ars Technica has an excellent article on a topic we’ve touched on: early research is showing that 10-20% of infectious people are responsible for most of the Sars-Cov-2 spread. In one study, 70% of people didn’t pass it on to anyone. Take all of this with a grain (or box?) of salt: these studies are still early and biased towards Asian data. As we’ve mentioned, the Asian response has been vastly different from the US response.
It’s worth understanding how hard it is to tease out these separate variables. There is enough research into the effects of race and the inequalities that came with being non-white on health that we don’t doubt that race is a significant component, by itself. However, it will probably be years before we have solid science behind the effects of race on COVID-19 outcomes: we just don’t have enough quality data.
The growth rate here is really high: that’s a 7-day average of >1500 new cases per day. It looks like AZ is on the exponential curve up. A key consideration: these numbers probably are close to reality, compared to New York at it’s peak when the actual cases were likely multiples higher than what was being tested.
Their cases are concentrated around Phoenix, however, the northeast counties have much higher rates per capita:
Those would be the Navajo and Apache counties with the highest case rates per capita.
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